For many federal contractors, the past year has been like a trip through the desert where you can never get to the green valley.  Based on our exposure to hundreds of programs, there is strong impressionistic evidence that RFP releases have moved to the right more than any other time in the 21st century.

The question at the forefront for contractors is – when will the dam break and the bottled-up RFPs began to pour forth?  Based on 15 years experience with RFP release cycles, I think this is what we can expect in the near future:

1. We will see more RFP releases during the next 30 days.  But this will be less than we usually see during early calendar year periods when there is still a Continuing Resolution (CR).  This is because the procurement community is spooked by the political situation, including polarized parties with animosity between the two sides and lack of political appointees not yet in place.

2. Once the appropriations are passed, the market will breathe a sign of relief, and RFP releases will become more plentiful.

3. The period of fast RFP releases will come 30-45-60 days after passage of appropriations, when the agencies have time to distribute budget dollars down to the individual activities.

4. Best educated guess among those close to the political process, the appropriations will be passed in early March or late February.

Is there any other industry where there is such joy of serving and yet such tribulations along the way?